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Feb 18, 2026
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SHORT
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Hyperscalers have committed to trillion-dollar spending obligations (debt) while current revenues are a fraction of that (e.g., OpenAI/Anthropic revenue vs. valuation). Ram notes, "They're echoes of 2008 when you had debt that wasn't worth par... I don't think it's great for Mag 7." These companies are releveraging their balance sheets (issuing debt/equity) to fund CapEx that has uncertain ROI. This capital destruction reduces their ability to fund share buybacks, which was the primary driver of their stock performance. SHORT/AVOID. The risk/reward for the heavy spenders is skewed to the downside as they incinerate cash. AI monetization accelerates faster than expected, validating the spend. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Why $700 Billion in AI CapEx Could Be the Nex...
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Feb 18, 2026
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LONG
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Nvidia and Apple are the only two major tech stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages. Nvidia has immense pricing power ("Mag 7 has no choice"), and Apple largely sat out the massive CapEx splurge. In a "picks and shovels" gold rush, the value accrues to the hardware provider (NVDA) regardless of whether the customers (MSFT/META) make a profit. Apple remains a defensive play with a cleaner balance sheet by avoiding the "incinerator." LONG. Divergence within Big Tech favors the sellers of infrastructure (NVDA) and the disciplined allocators (AAPL). A sudden halt in AI CapEx spending would crush Nvidia's order book. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Why $700 Billion in AI CapEx Could Be the Nex...
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Jan 28, 2026
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LONG
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Market sentiment has shifted entirely to commodities/gold, and "no one is expecting a rally in Mag7 tech stocks." Tech stocks have been sold off while Gold rallied. With earnings approaching for Meta and Google, the bar is low. If they don't miss, the rotation back into oversold tech could be sharp as the "Gold trade" unwinds. Buy the dip in high-quality tech ahead of earnings. Disappointing earnings or AI capex concerns could deepen the rout. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Gold to $12,000 or ‘Sell Gold Today’? – Bits ...
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Jan 28, 2026
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LONG
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Ram explicitly mentions Allstate is trading at 7x earnings with earnings growth, while high beta stocks are weakening. In a "Real Politick" environment where high beta is crashing, capital rotates to "boring," defensive value. Insurance offers low multiples and steady cash flow, acting as a safe haven that isn't as crowded as Gold. Long Insurance (specifically Allstate) as a defensive rotation play. Catastrophic weather events impacting insurance payouts. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Gold to $12,000 or ‘Sell Gold Today’? – Bits ...
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Jan 28, 2026
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LONG
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Ram notes that copper and gold miners are correlated to the metal but often offer better leverage. He specifically mentions Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). Even if the physical metal pauses, the structural demand for infrastructure (copper) and the profitability of miners at these elevated prices ($5k Gold) make the equities a superior play to the commodity itself. Long Copper and Gold Miners. A recession crushing industrial demand for Copper. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Gold to $12,000 or ‘Sell Gold Today’? – Bits ...
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Jan 28, 2026
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SHORT
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Gold hit $5,100 (a round number) and immediately saw a technical reversal where buyers failed to hold the highs. It is now on the front page of the WSJ and Bloomberg. When a niche asset hits main street covers and psychological round numbers, it typically signals a local top due to overcrowding. The "easy money" has been made, and a tactical pullback is likely as markets reassess. Sell tactical positions or short for a pullback (1-3 month view). Geopolitical escalation (Iran/China) could force a panic bid regardless of technicals. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Gold to $12,000 or ‘Sell Gold Today’? – Bits ...
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Jan 28, 2026
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AVOID
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"The old guard of high beta... Bitcoin, Palantir, and Robinhood... is very weak." These assets rely on liquidity and risk appetite. With the market rotating defensive (Insurance) or into hard assets (Gold), the liquidity premium is draining from these high-multiple/speculative names. Avoid or sell high beta tech and crypto. A sudden dovish pivot from the Fed reigniting "junk" rallies. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Gold to $12,000 or ‘Sell Gold Today’? – Bits ...
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Jan 28, 2026
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LONG
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Ram states he has "never owned so many international stocks before" and specifically mentions Chile is "running circles around the US." US valuations are stretched and political risk is high. Emerging markets (specifically commodity-rich nations like Chile) offer better value and leverage to the resource boom without the US tech premium. Long International/Emerging Markets. A strong USD crushing emerging market debt holders. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Gold to $12,000 or ‘Sell Gold Today’? – Bits ...
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